
Enterprise Software · Data Intelligence
OpenAI
Tender Offer 3
Latest valuation (Oct 2025 employee/secondary share sale)
$300.0B → $500.0B · Mar 2025–Oct 2025
Probability modeled from funding stage, momentum & liquidity signals.
Valuation Trajectory
Funding-round staircase from founding · log scale. Filled dots are verified marks; hollow dots are the modeled round ladder between them.
IPO Model Drivers
Why the odds read this way
Factor weights are illustrative decompositions of the modeled IPO probability, not guarantees.
Down-Round Risk
Valuation downside pressure
Mixed signals — valuation up 67% with 12% modeled IPO odds keep down-round risk in the middle band.
Asset brief
OpenAI is an Enterprise Software · Data Intelligence company last marked at $500B (cross-verified by 3 independent sources). Stage: Tender Offer 3. Valuation momentum is +66.7% ($300B → $500B). The transparent model puts IPO odds at 40% over the next 24 months. 8 verified events in the last 30 days — most recently: "OpenAI plans regular reports on unexpected AI behaviour - The Business Times".
Capital Timeline
Funding & liquidity milestones
Tender Offer 3
$500B
OpenAI Rules Out 2026 IPO As AI Leaders Call For A Slowdown - Memeburn
Sep 2026IPO signal · Memeburn
Daily Digest: Good news out of SFO, OpenAI in talks for trillion-dollar valuation - The Business Journals
Sep 2026Funding · The Business Journals
OpenAI’s Reported Valuation Jump Doesn’t Seem Slowed by Growing AI Safety Concerns - Morningstar
Sep 2026Funding · Morningstar
OpenAI says it can manage AI risks; Its IPO delay raises bigger questions - Yahoo Finance
Sep 2026IPO signal · Yahoo Finance
Backed by
Comparables
Signals
- NewsThe Business Times
OpenAI plans regular reports on unexpected AI behaviour - The Business Times
- IPOMemeburn
OpenAI Rules Out 2026 IPO As AI Leaders Call For A Slowdown - Memeburn
- Legal9to5Mac
Judge scrutinizes Musk’s move to drop Apple from antitrust lawsuit involving OpenAI - 9to5Mac
- LegalInsider NJ
Copyright Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Microsoft Grows to More Than 550 Publications - Insider NJ
- FundingThe Business Journals
Daily Digest: Good news out of SFO, OpenAI in talks for trillion-dollar valuation - The Business Journals
- FundingMorningstar
OpenAI’s Reported Valuation Jump Doesn’t Seem Slowed by Growing AI Safety Concerns - Morningstar
- NewsYellow.com
OpenAI Turns ChatGPT Into An Ad Platform With Sponsored Agents - Yellow.com
- IPOYahoo Finance
OpenAI says it can manage AI risks; Its IPO delay raises bigger questions - Yahoo Finance