
Industrial · Aerospace & Defense
SpaceX
Series N
Latest valuation — December 2025 insider/secondary share sale ($800B)
$350.0B → $800.0B · Dec 2024–Dec 2025
Probability modeled from funding stage, momentum & liquidity signals.
Valuation Trajectory
Funding-round staircase from founding · log scale. Filled dots are verified marks; hollow dots are the modeled round ladder between them.
IPO Model Drivers
Why the odds read this way
Factor weights are illustrative decompositions of the modeled IPO probability, not guarantees.
Down-Round Risk
Valuation downside pressure
Strong momentum (valuation up 129%) and a late financing stage make a down round unlikely near-term.
Asset brief
SpaceX is an Industrial · Aerospace & Defense company last marked at $800B (cross-verified by 3 independent sources). Stage: Series N. Valuation momentum is +128.6% ($350B → $800B). The transparent model puts IPO odds at 60% over the next 24 months. 8 verified events in the last 30 days — most recently: "The SpaceX IPO Gave This Couple License to Chase Their Dreams - WSJ".
Capital Timeline
Funding & liquidity milestones
Backed by
Comparables
Signals
- IPOWSJ
The SpaceX IPO Gave This Couple License to Chase Their Dreams - WSJ
- NewsYahoo Finance Australia
Elon Musk is finally putting Dogecoin on the moon today - Yahoo Finance Australia
- NewsKTLA
SpaceX launching classified mission from California - KTLA
- Newsforeignpolicyjournal.com
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) Stock Price Jumps 5% As Starship Targets First Orbital Flight On September 22 - foreignpolicyjournal.com
- NewsTradingView
SpaceX stock faces a new question tied to Elon Musk - TradingView
- NewsInvestor's Business Daily
Cathie Wood Projects $10 Trillion In SpaceX Starship Revenue By 2030 - Investor's Business Daily
- LaunchYahoo Finance
SpaceX stock pops ahead of Starship launch - Yahoo Finance
- LaunchNew York Post
SpaceX soars 5% after Starship reusable rocket launch date revealed - New York Post