Open dataset · CC BY 4.0
Modeled IPO Odds: Private Companies
A transparent, documented probability that a company goes public within 24 months.
8 entities · computed via Modeled IPO Odds methodology. Every figure is cross-verified against ≥2 independent sources.
| Company | Modeled IPO Odds | As of | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Databricks | 50% | 2026-02-09 | verified ✓ |
| Stripe | 45% | 2026-06-04 | verified ✓ |
| OpenAI | 40% | 2026-06-04 | verified ✓ |
| Anthropic | 88% | 2026-06-04 | verified ✓ |
| SpaceX | 60% | 2026-06-04 | verified ✓ |
| Anduril | 47% | 2026-05-13 | verified ✓ |
| Ramp | 50% | 2026-06-04 | verified ✓ |
| Perplexity | 44% | 2025-09-10 | verified ✓ |
Modeled IPO Odds: frequently asked questions
- Which private company has the highest modeled ipo odds?
- Anthropic leads the dataset at 88% (as of 2026-06-04), across 8 cross-verified pre-IPO companies.
- How is modeled ipo odds calculated?
- A transparent, documented probability that a company goes public within 24 months. Formula: p = logistic(−1.6 + 0.18·(age/5) + 2.4·S1 + 0.5·pace + 1.8·compRate − 0.12·staleness). Each figure is cross-verified against at least two independent public sources.
- How many companies are in the Modeled IPO Odds dataset, and how often is it updated?
- 8 private companies, last updated 2026-02-09. Values refresh continuously as new public marks and filings are verified.
- Can I reuse this modeled ipo odds data?
- Yes — the dataset is free under CC BY 4.0 with attribution to econ.markets. It is informational, not investment advice.