Methodology
Modeled IPO Odds
A transparent, documented probability that a company goes public within 24 months.
Formula
p = logistic(−1.6 + 0.18·(age/5) + 2.4·S1 + 0.5·pace + 1.8·compRate − 0.12·staleness)
Inputs
- Years since Series A
- S-1 / registration signal
- Funding pace
- Peer-exit rate
- Raise recency
Assumptions & limits
A simple logistic model over verified signals: company age since Series A, presence of an S-1 / registration signal, funding pace, the rate at which sector peers have exited, and how recently the company last raised. It is a modeled estimate published for comparison — NOT a prediction, guarantee, or investment advice.
Worked example — Databricks
- Modeled odds
- 50% · next 24 months
- As of
- 2026-02-09
Why this is unique
Nobody else publishes a documented, reproducible IPO-probability model for private companies.